Economists generally believe there should be a rational equilibrium in the cost of housing of different housing types. But after the pandemic hit, supply and demand shifted dramatically: SF median house prices are now up 13%, condo prices are flat, and rents down 17%. However, in 2021 all 3 have been rebounding in close to parallel trend lines.
A 3 month rolling trends will illustrate market seasonality – typical seasonal ups and downs in median prices – as well as broad, longer-term trends. The Q2 2020 to Q2 2021 decline in mortgage interest rates was a positive factor in household housing affordability percentages, but was outweighed by large increases in county median house sales prices.
Approximately 3,885 MLS sales occurred in the six months through mid-June 2021. 54% of MLS sales ere condos, 38% were houses, 6% TICs, 1% co-ops and 1% townhouses. Seasonal fluctuations are common and it’s not unusual for median sales prices to peak for the year in spring Q2. Longer-term trends are more meaningful than short-term changes.