Rising Interest Rates Continued to Impact Supply & Demand in October,
But Early November Brings Big Shift in Economic Indicators.
The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends November 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.
Economic indicators have been challenging since the fall selling season began: Interest rates continued to rise through early October and stock markets generally continued to fall from mid- summer, YTD highs.
The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends October 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.
“The surprisingly quick recovery [of the housing market] suggests that the residential real-estate downturn is turning out to be shorter and shallower than many housing economists expected after mortgage rates soared last year…There still aren’t enough homes for sale to meet demand.” The Wall Street Journal, “The Fall in Home Prices May Already Be Over,” 9/8/23
Generally speaking, the market slowed in July, a common seasonal trend, and August is usually one of the quietest months of the year though last year, a sudden, but short-lived drop in interest rates kindled buyer demand in August. Underlying economic dynamics – interest rates, inflation, financial markets, employment – remain on the same general tracks as in recent months. The Consumer Confidence Index jumped in July, hitting its best reading since October 2021: The Index is now about halfway between its historic low in June 2022 and the pre-pandemic reading in February 2020.*
Across Bay Area counties, the year-over-year (y-o-y), 3-month-rolling, median home sales price declines that commonly began in the second half of 2022 and peaked in spring have begun to drop. Based on current trends, they will probably continue to dwindle, and perhaps disappear, in the second half of the year.
The number of homes coming on market in the 7 counties of the San Francisco & San Jose Metro Areas during the past 12 months dropped 32% from the previous 12-month period: 22,000 fewer properties were put up for sale.** Along with the recovery in buyer demand and improvements in the general economy, this has been a defining factor in 2023’s market conditions.
It is not unusual to see a substantial autumn spike up in SF listing and sales activity after Labor Day, lasting through late October or early November, before the market subsides for the big, mid- winter holiday slowdown, which typically lasts until early in the new year.
Included are charts reviewing both annual home prices for a broad review of appreciation trends, and then 3-month-rolling prices for insight into shorter-term changes. This report also includes a review of home prices and market dynamics of districts within the city.
The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends August 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.
Underlying market and economic dynamics in 2023 have been a mixed bag of often contrary and volatile factors – including downward-trending inflation; interest rates bouncing between 6% and 7%; unceasing uncertainty regarding what the Fed will do next; substantial rebounds in stock markets; bank, commercial real estate and debt-default crises; international political, economic and military conflicts; high-tech layoffs amid generally strong employment statistics; and a recovery in buyer demand, sales activity and home prices, but all 3 remaining significantly lower than the peak of the market in spring 2022.
The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends July 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.
Recapping the Spring 2023 Market. Median home sales prices have begun to recover from mid-winter lows, though remaining far below peak prices hit in spring 2022.
Looking at the overall Bay Area, buyer demand has continued to rebound from its late 2022 nadir. Though mortgage applications are still well down year over year, many buyers have accepted higher interest rates as the new normal and decided to move forward – and rates have recently been trending downward.
The Market Continues to Recover, But with Many Dynamics at Play. Buyer demand continued to rebound from the depths of the mid-winter slowdown: The number and percentage of listings going into contract, and overbidding percentages continued to climb, and days-on-market to drop as the spring selling season gained traction.
The post San Francisco Home Prices, Market Conditions & Trends April 2023 first appeared on Paragon Specific.
2023 Market Indicators Turn Positive (But Interest Rates Climb Again). After the acute decline in market activity occurring in the 2nd half of 2022, buyer demand rebounded dramatically and most market indicators turned positive in early 2023: Open house traffic, number of offers, and overbidding and absorption rates all saw improvement.
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Early 2023 Data Suggests Buyers Are Beginning to Jump Back In. December is typically the month that sees the year’s lowest level of deal-making activity – i.e. listings accepting offers (going into contract) – which leads to January usually posting the lowest monthly number of closed sales. (Sales typically close 3 to 6 weeks after going into contract.)
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